Load Forecasting

EES Consulting provides a wide array of forecasting services to clients including load and peak demand forecasting, market prices, and other related independent variables such as population, income, and employment.  Forecasting services are often provided as part of other studies such as integrated resource planning, resource analysis, benefit-cost analysis or as a stand-alone service.

We define our clients’ longer term purchase needs through load forecasting using statistical and econometric analysis of consumption patterns and energy efficiency measures.  Shorter-term purchase needs are developed from review of historical demands, weather forecasts, spot market prices and existing purchase contract prices and limits. We can plan a resource stack to meet forecasted loads using the lowest cost combination of existing contract purchases, existing supply resources, and short-term market purchases and sales.

The major role of a load forecast is to help a utility plan for necessary generation capacity and purchased power transactions, transmission planning, and distribution planning. In the short-term, a load forecast is also used for financial planning. To preserve the differences in growth rates across each customer type, forecasts are generally broken down by customer class. EES Consulting develops load forecasts (monthly, annual etc) based on forecasts of number of customers, average use, and independent variables such as weather or economic variables. Peak demand forecasts are based on the energy forecast, load factors, or other variables.

Forecasts can be provided for normal weather or more extreme weather conditions. EES Consulting also provides weather normalization services to adjust actual loads to show historic trends based on normal weather patterns.

Clark Public Utilities

Clark Public Utilities requests long-term monthly electric load forecasts annually for use in financial and resource planning. Clark Public Utilities load forecast consists of individual class load forecasts (eighteen classes in total) which are estimated using a variety of econometric models. Peak demand is forecast for several demand-metered classes as well as the system as a whole.

Anchorage Municipal Light & Power

EES Consulting prepares a monthly long-term load forecast for ML&P which is used for cost of service analysis, integrated resource planning, and other regulatory filings. The ML&P load forecast includes econometric modeling and results in a natural gas use forecast in addition to an electric load forecast.